The Coaster Rail-To-Trail Project
Re-imagining the troubled train tracks as the most popular trail in America
The Coaster Rail-To-Trail Project
Re-imagining the troubled train tracks as the most popular trail in America
The Train Creates A Lot of Conflict
Death, Noise, Divided Cities, Blocked Beach Access
The train creates a lot of conflict because it travels in such a popular and high traffic area. There are deaths and lawsuits every year due to the train.
The train serves as a barrier for the tens of thousands who want to access the beach. Many people are outraged when they get fined hundreds of dollars for crossing the tracks--all because they just want to get to the ocean.
The train regularly blasts its decibel level horn day and night. It is a major nuisance and health hazard for the thousands of people who live within range.
The train physically divides cities with its substantial barriers, trenches, and fences. It creates eyesores and impedes optimized urban design.
significant Bluff erosion in DEL MAR is forcing reassessment
$3+ billion to dig a tunnel under Del Mar is very impractical
The erosion of the bluffs is accelerating the conversation about both a potential catastrophic failure and the train's overall utility given very low usage. There have been several collapses in the past few years, now nearly touching the rails. State Representative Tasha Boerner Horvath has sponsored a bill (AB 2062) seeking $5 million for a SANDAG study on removing the tracks from the Del Mar bluffs. http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200AB2062
Some have suggested rerouting the tracks by the 5 highway or through a tunnel underneath Del Mar. The grade is too steep by the highway, and a tunnel underneath Del Mar would cost $3+ billion, take 10+ years, turn Del Mar into a construction nightmare, and probably create an environmental disaster. To what end? The train line creates conflict, has low usage, and will likely be made even more obsolete in the future from growing use of autonomous vehicle technology. Taxpayers will not allow a project with such a disproportionate cost-benefit ratio.
In the meantime, SANDAG (San Diego Association of Governments), which oversees transit, and the NCTD (North County Transit District), which operates the tracks, are looking to spend serious amounts of money just trying to keep the tracks where they are. SANDAG has a six phase plan to address the immediate issue of stabilizing the cliffs. The current phase 4 is in progress and budgeted at $5.8 million. Phases 5 and 6 are expected to cost $70 million and $30 million, but are not yet funded. This $100 million is substantial for a train with low ridership numbers and a high probability of large operating losses for the foreseeable future.
The proposed spending doesn't end with $3 billion on this tunnel. There is also a proposed multi-billion dollar tunnel for the Miramar area as well as substantial upgrades to make the trains run on clean energy. The all-in cost could be as high as $10 billion.
Coaster Ridership Numbers- Very Low & Declining
The NCTD promotes this misconception that the Coaster moves a lot of people, frequently citing an out-of-context figure of 1.4 million annual riders or the approximate 30 trains it runs per day. The rider numbers are actually quite low, and many of the trains run nearly empty.
Most trains across the country suffer from low ridership levels, but few occupy such valuable coastal real estate as the Coaster. Information from SANDAG and the NCTD on the Coaster train volumes is inconsistent, but the link below gives a great overview of San Diego County's comprehensive commuting profile.
https://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_2144_22946.pdf
Page 3 shows public transit makes up just 3.5% of total commuter volume, with rail making up 1.4% of the total. The table on page 5 (picture above) shows that of the 5 rail lines in the county, the Coaster has the lowest ridership by far, at only 5,196 daily weekday boardings. (Note that weekends have much lower usage, which brings the daily average below 4,000.) By contrast, the Blue Line Trolley has 56,230 daily riders. The Coaster accounts for 1/25th of total rail volume in the county. What makes the Coaster numbers even worse is the length of the line at 41 miles. It is by far the longest of the 5 routes. Logic would indicate a longer line should carry more riders. The Coaster does not. For comparison, the 15.4 mile Blue Line moves 3,651 people per day per mile. The Coaster moves only 127 people per weekday per mile, making it among the worst performing trains in the country.
For comparison, the nearby 5 and 101 highways move about 400 times more people than the Coaster. The link below notes that the 27 mile stretch of the 5 highway from La Jolla to Oceanside has more than 700,000 daily trips. If we included the entire 41 mile stretch of the 5 highway (that matches the Coaster line), the daily numbers are closer to 1.1 million, or about 300 times more than the Coaster. If we include the 101 Coast Highway and adjust upwards 10% for carpooling, the estimate is 400 times more highway commuters versus the Coaster.
https://keepsandiegomoving.com/I-5-Corridor/what-is-an-EL.aspx
Conclusion: the Coaster is so marginal that it can be discontinued and not create any meaningful impact on the highways.
3 reasons why The coaster numbers won't increase
San Diego has a low population density
San Diego County, especially the northern part of the county, has a low population density that makes the train unattractive and uneconomical. Many people think of New York City when they think of rail and mass transit, but the NYC area is 30 times more dense than San Diego. NYC is the exception in America, not the rule. Most train lines in America suffer from poor utilization. Many were so poor that they were discontinued.
Land use restrictions prevent large increases in density
Land use restrictions make it highly unlikely that the density will ever change significantly in the north coastal part of the county. Even small changes in more dense housing projects would not have a meaningful impact on Coaster usage.
Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS)
The rise of autonomous vehicles is likely to revolutionize transportation and mass transit. Ride-sharing companies such as Uber and Lyft have already impacted public transit. NCTD volumes are down 18% since 2009. Many transit experts believe that the future of transportation is all electric, self-driving cars operated by fleet companies in a shift to transportation-as-a-service (TaaS).
Amtrak Pacific Surfliner Ridership is Even Lower
21 daily riders per mile of track is incredibly low
The Coaster line is shared by the Amtrak Pacific Surfliner and the BNSF freight train. Surfliner ridership levels are even worse than the Coaster. This line is 350 miles long, stretching from San Diego to San Luis Obispo. In 2019, it had 2,776,654 riders, down 6% from 2,946,239 in 2018. That is an average of only 7,607 daily riders for a 350 mile line. That translates to an astoundingly low rate of 21 riders per mile per day. It is only due to endless subsidies from Congress that this line still exists.
The only Amtrak line that is economical is the line in the northeast corridor, running from Washington D.C. to Boston. Amtrak, the NCTD, and SANDAG will often make statements about the San Diego-LA rail corridor, describing it as "the second busiest" in the country, with no other context. It may be the second busiest, but that is only because all but the northeast line suffer from incredibly low ridership numbers.
The Surfliner and most Amtrak trains aren't fast or inexpensive. It takes 3 hours to go 120 miles from San Diego to LA (excluding time to get to and from station) and costs $35 one way.
As a result of the coronavirus crisis, national Amtrak rider numbers are down 95% from normal levels. The organization is cutting staff by 20% and expects rider volumes to recover to only 50% of normal levels in 2021. The CDC is discouraging use of mass transit. See links below. Perhaps this crisis will serve as the catalyst to terminate the many Amtrak lines that arguably should have been terminated decades ago. This could be an opportunity for more rail-to-trail projects.
See links below for additional information:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/amtrak-needs-bailout-plans-to-cut-up-to-20-percent-of-workforce.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Surfliner
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article237415894.html
http://www.realtransit.org/nec8.php
Freight Volumes are MINUSCULE - only 82 carloads per day
Volume could easily be absorbed by the 5 highway, which has over one million daily trips
There is a small amount of freight operated by BNSF that shares the line. Information is not great on freight volumes, but the SANDAG link below notes that total volume is 30,000 carloads annually, an average of 82 carloads per day, typically coming from two nighttime runs. This is an extremely small amount of volume compared to the 1 million daily trips that occur on the 5 highway. Volumes could easily be shifted to the highway. In the future, highway trucking will benefit from autonomous vehicle technology, particularly with the ability to schedule trips during the night when highways have more capacity.
https://www.sandag.org/index.asp?classid=13&subclassid=96&projectid=439&fuseaction=projects.detail
SANDAG and Cities are facing Significant Budget Cuts
The train should be among the first items to get cut
SANDAG and many cities are facing significant budget challenges as a result of the coronavirus crisis. Termination of a money losing train with low ridership numbers should be high on the list of programs to cut. This train loses money on an operating basis, will require tens of millions of dollars to stabilize the bluffs, and would eventually require billions to reroute.
Coaster volumes are down over 95% from the current volumes. They may never recover to their previous levels. Sustained operating losses for the Coaster are going to increase significantly. In a telling and related move, Governor Newsom canceled the disastrous California High-Speed Rail project in 2019, which was before the coronavirus crisis even occurred.
SANDAG needs to establish goals for acceptable ridership numbers to maintain the Coaster. What if there are only 1,000 daily riders a year from now? Will SANDAG continue to subsidize and operate the Coaster amidst county budgets that have been hit hard?
Coaster riders down 95% in 2020
All public transit volumes have declined as a result of the coronavirus crisis with the Breeze down 70% and the Sprinter down 55%, but Coaster volumes are even worse, down 95%. Many riders may not come back.
Rails-to-trails has led and inspired many rail conversions
The Rails-to-Trails Conservancy ( https://www.railstotrails.org/ ) is a non-profit that advocates for rail conversion projects and helps navigate legal and technical issues that can emerge in converting a rail line to a trail. They have a history of many successful conversion projects.
The final vision for the Coaster trail conversion is one that ultimately includes the entire 350 mile line that covers both the Coaster and the Pacific Surfliner trail. This trail would stretch from San Diego to San Luis Obispo, and hopefully all the way to northern California one day. The trail would be multi-use, allowing for bikes, e-bikes, hikers, walkers, and joggers.
Beyond the explicit lifestyle/outdoors appeal, the trail would become an engine of economic value creation. There are billions of dollars in real estate development opportunities that would be unlocked. For instance, a quick walk along the tracks near Leucadia Boulevard demonstrates large potential for development and optimization, including opportunities to satisfy affordable housing requirements. In addition to significant increases in real estate values and development opportunities, there would be increased business and foot-traffic for shops located near the trail. The High Line in New York has created billions in added value, including over $900 million in added property tax collections, significantly exceeding initial estimates.
The trail could also become a safe bicycle backbone, reducing the number of cars on the road and leading to a significant lifestyle and sustainability benefit.
With all its advantages, this trail could become the most popular trail in America, attracting tens of millions of local users and visitors per year. It could become a California icon.
This is a project that will have to be completed in stages. The first step is to get the NCTD or SANDAG board to approve a comprehensive study of the tracks as a trail. The study should look at financial costs, economic benefits, technology trends impacting transportation, demographics, environmental benefits, and social/lifestyle benefits. The analysis should look at two different scenarios:
1- A 41-mile trail from downtown San Diego to Oceanside
2-A 350-mile trail from San Diego to San Luis Obispo.
There is good reason to believe that the analysis would show overwhelming benefits of the tracks repurposed as a trail. Then we go from there.
Click on the links below to learn about all of the other amazing rail-to-trail projects going on:
Atlanta's very successful "Beltline" conversion and redevelopment: https://beltline.org/
https://www.dezeen.com/2017/06/27/18-rail-to-trail-projects-high-line-network-north-america/
https://www.afar.com/magazine/ride-run-or-walk-these-8-great-us-rail-trails
Island Line Trail
Burke-Gilman Trail
Island Line Trail
The Island Line Trail in Burlington, Vermont is one of the the top attractions in the city and may just be one of the coolest rail conversions ever.
The High Line
Burke-Gilman Trail
Island Line Trail
The High Line converted an elevated train line in Manhattan into an iconic trail that attracts over 8 million visitors per year and has added billions of dollars in economic value.
Burke-Gilman Trail
Burke-Gilman Trail
Burke-Gilman Trail
This Seattle trail runs mostly along the waterfront and replaces a disused train. It is now a very popular attraction for locals and visitors alike, promoting the outdoor lifestyle.
Greenhouse gas Benefits of a $3+ billion tunnel are minimal
Building the tunnel just maintains the status quo
Some officials write about the beneficial impacts of the tunnel and train as it relates to greenhouse gas emissions. The spending on the tunnel would only increase ridership numbers marginally, if at all, so the reduction in GHG is effectively nothing. This spending is to merely maintain the status quo.
What if we spent $3 billion subsidizing purchase of electric vehicles?
With a $5,000 purchase incentive, $2.95 billion could be used to promote the purchase of 590,000 all-electric vehicles in the county. With a $500 incentive for electric bikes, $50 million could be used to incentivize the purchase of 100,000 electric bikes. This could take well over 600,000 gas-based cars off the road. It could also be implemented within the next few years, not in 10+ years it would take to construct a tunnel.
From a climate change perspective, promoting the purchase of electric vehicles and electric bikes is over 100 times more beneficial than the construction of a tunnel for a train that has very low and declining usage.
More Coaster Info - History
Coaster only started service in 1995
Below is a link on the history of the Coaster. It only got its start in 1995. Prior to that, the line was used for a handful of marginally utilized Amtrak and freight runs. It has been a worthwhile 25 year experiment, but the results are clear. Ridership numbers are low. They peaked in 2012 around 1.6 million annually and have declined fairly steadily since then to around 1.4 million in 2019. There is nothing to indicate that ridership numbers will increase materially. In 2020, ridership levels have plunged 95%+ as a result of coronavirus. Due to ongoing concerns about contagion and hygiene, it is possible that many riders will not return even after the crisis passes. The train is slow, expensive, and inconvenient. The rise of self-driving cars in the next 5-10 years is likely to result in further rider reduction.
SANDAG's "Big 5" Moves - $177 billion Price tag
Still promoting trains? California High Speed Rail was abandoned
SANDAG is currently led by Hasan Ikhrata. The organization has encountered recent scandal regarding revenue forecasts and proposed tax increases. It is still focused on expensive rail projects beyond the Coaster line despite the evidence that rail and mass transit are in decline throughout the country. In August of 2020, SANDAG finally unveiled the price tag for its "Big 5 Moves" at $177 billion. See link below. This is an immense amount of money for a county of only 3 million people, and with modest inflation, the true cost is likely to be much higher. Do they not understand that the California High Speed Rail project was abandoned because it proved to be so problematic and costly?
The current SANDAG rail project under construction is the mid-town Trolley line which is to be finished in 2021 and will connect the UCSD-UTC area to Old Town. This project is already in trouble with projected daily ridership numbers declining from 35,000 to 20,000 while the cost has increased 69% from $1.2 billion to 2.1 billion.
https://thecoastnews.com/sandag-board-to-consider-price-tag-of-transportation-vision/
https://www.keepsandiegomoving.com/Mid-coast/midcoast-intro.aspx
https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/government/a-readers-guide-to-the-sandag-scandal/
https://www.sdforward.com/mobility-planning/5-big-moves
The future of San Diego transportation is almost certainly going to include a significant shift to self driving cars and transportation-as-a-service (TaaS). It is prudent to wait for the private sector to develop self-driving cars and make as-needed adjustments to the highways and roads to optimize them.
Citizens for Access to Del Mar Beach / Bluffs / Trails
This is a Facebook group that advocates for access to the beach and the bluffs. It has a lot of great information and includes many elected officials and knowledgeable locals as members. Join us!
https://www.facebook.com/groups/delmarbeachaccess/?ref=bookmarks