The Coaster Rail-To-Trail Project
Re-imagining the troubled train tracks as the most popular trail in America
The Coaster Rail-To-Trail Project
Re-imagining the troubled train tracks as the most popular trail in America
Coaster Ridership Numbers- Very Low & Declining
There is a lot of misinformation and spin about the train's utility. For the amount of money, land, and attention the Coaster and train tracks require, it actually does very little.
The table above puts the Coaster in the appropriate context, both compared to the other train lines in the County as well as the adjacent highways. It shows that of the 5 rail lines in the county, the Coaster has the lowest ridership by far, at only 5,196 daily weekday boardings. By contrast, the Blue Line Trolley has 56,230 daily riders. The Coaster accounts for just 1/25th of total rail volume in the county. What makes the Coaster numbers even worse is the length of the line at 41 miles. It is by far the longest of the 5 routes. Logic would indicate a longer line should carry more riders, but the Coaster does not. For comparison, the 15.4 mile Blue Line moves 3,651 people per day per mile. The Coaster moves only 127 people per weekday per mile, making it among the worst performing trains in the country.
For another comparison, the nearby I-5 highway (from downtown to Oceanside) moves about 1.2 million people per day, or over 400 million per year, over 400 times more people than the Coaster. Annual growth in trips for the I-5 is around 1%, translating to around 10,000 additional daily riders each year. With the current I-5 expansion projects and future efficiencies gained from driver assist and autonomous vehicle technology, it is possible the I-5 accommodates more than 1 billion annual trips by the year 2050. Even if the Coaster miraculously doubles its ridership to 2 or 3 million over the next 20 years, it will still be insignificant compared to the future volumes and annual growth on the I-5.
https://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_2144_22946.pdf
https://keepsandiegomoving.com/I-5-Corridor/what-is-an-EL.aspx
Conclusion: the Coaster is so marginal that it can be discontinued and not create any meaningful impact on the highways.
Coaster riders down 95% in 2020
The Coaster experienced 6 years of ridership decline prior to the pandemic. Today, the 10-year NCTD forecast for the Coaster shows ridership levels in 2031 still down by over 80% from 2019 already-low levels. The 168,261 figure translates to just 460 riders per day. Remote/flex work trends and the move to autonomous vehicles and mass transit on the highways will present serious longer term challenges.
3 reasons why The coaster numbers won't increase
San Diego has a low population density
San Diego County, especially the northern part of the county, has a low population density that makes the train unattractive and uneconomical. Many people think of New York City when they think of rail and mass transit, but the NYC area is 30 times more dense than San Diego. NYC is the exception in America, not the rule. Most train lines in America suffer from poor utilization. Many were so poor that they were discontinued.
Land use restrictions prevent large increases in density
Land use restrictions make it highly unlikely that the density will ever change significantly in the north coastal part of the county. Even small changes in more dense housing projects would not have a meaningful impact on Coaster usage.
Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS)
The rise of autonomous vehicles is likely to revolutionize transportation and mass transit. Ride-hailing companies such as Uber and Lyft have already impacted public transit. NCTD volumes are down 18% since 2009. Many transit experts, including at SANDAG, believe that the future of transportation is all electric, self-driving cars operated by fleet companies in a shift to transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) and mass transit on the highways
Amtrak Pacific Surfliner Ridership is Even Lower
21 daily riders per mile of track is incredibly low
Amtrak Surfliner ridership levels are even worse than the Coaster.
This line is 350 miles long, stretching from San Diego to San Luis Obispo. In 2019, it had 2,776,654 riders, down 6% from 2,946,239 in 2018. That is an average of only 7,607 daily riders for a 350 mile line. That translates to an astoundingly low rate of 21 riders per mile per day.
The only Amtrak line that is economical is the line in the northeast corridor, running from Washington D.C. to Boston. Amtrak, the NCTD, and SANDAG will often make statements about the San Diego-LA rail corridor, describing it as "the second busiest" in the country, with no other context. It may be the second busiest, but that is only because all but the northeast corridor suffer from incredibly low ridership numbers. The Surfliner and most Amtrak trains aren't fast or inexpensive. It takes 3 hours to go 120 miles from San Diego to LA (excluding time to get to and from station) and costs $35 one way.
The coronavirus ridership plunge and fallout along with a technological future of self-driving electric vehicles and short-haul electric planes would seem to present serious challenges to most Amtrak lines.
See links below for additional information:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Surfliner
Freight Volumes are MINUSCULE - only 82 carloads per day
Volume could easily be absorbed by the 5 highway
Despite popular misperception, there is only a small amount of freight operated by BNSF that shares the line. The SANDAG link and pie chart below notes that rail freight in San Diego County is only 0.5% of total freight, with the other 99%+ effectively coming from the highways. The total volume on the NCTD tracks is 30,000 carloads annually, an average of 82 carloads per day, typically coming from two nighttime runs. This is an extremely small amount of volume compared to the 1+ million daily trips that occur on the 5 highway. In the future, highway trucking will benefit from autonomous vehicle technology, particularly with the ability to platoon and schedule trips during the night when highways have more capacity.
https://www.sandag.org/uploads/projectid/projectid_437_19698.pdf
https://www.sandag.org/index.asp?classid=13&subclassid=96&projectid=439&fuseaction=projects.detail
Rail freight volumes in the county are tiny, only 0.5% of total freight
The other 99%+ of freight occurs on the highways. It is frequently stated there is $1 billion of freight transported on rail every year, but there is well over $200 billion transported via truck freight.
significant Bluff erosion in DEL MAR is accelerating reasses
$3+ billion to dig a tunnel under Del Mar is very impractical
The erosion of the bluffs is accelerating the conversation about both a potential catastrophic failure and the train's overall utility given very low usage. Some have suggested rerouting the tracks by the 5 highway or through a tunnel underneath Del Mar. The grade is too steep by the highway, and a tunnel underneath Del Mar would cost $3+ billion, take 15+ years, turn Del Mar into a construction nightmare, and probably create an environmental disaster. To what end? The train line creates conflict, has low usage, and will likely be made even more obsolete in the future from growing use of autonomous vehicle technology. Taxpayers will not be happy with a project that has such a disproportionate cost-benefit ratio.
The proposed spending doesn't end with $3 billion on this tunnel. There is also a proposed multi-billion dollar tunnel for the Miramar area as well as substantial upgrades to make the trains run on clean energy. There is also 9 miles of vulnerable tracks that run along the beach in San Clemente that will have to be addressed, and another 8 miles along the beach in Santa Barbara county. The all-in cost could be well over $20 billion to address all of this.
https://www.keepsandiegomoving.com/Documents/I5-Corridor/I-5.LOSSAN_Factsheet.pdf
The Train Creates A Lot of Conflict
Death, Noise, Divided Cities, Blocked Beach Access
The train creates a lot of conflict because it travels in such a popular and high traffic area. There are deaths and lawsuits every year due to the train.
The train serves as a barrier for the tens of thousands who want to access the beach. Many people are outraged when they get fined hundreds of dollars for crossing the tracks--all because they just want to get to the ocean.
The train regularly blasts its decibel level horn day and night. It is a major nuisance and health hazard for the thousands of people who live within range.
The train physically divides cities with its substantial barriers, trenches, and fences. It creates eyesores and significantly impedes good, people-oriented urban design.
Rails-to-trails has led and inspired many rail conversions
The Rails-to-Trails Conservancy ( https://www.railstotrails.org/ ) is a non-profit that advocates for rail conversion projects and helps navigate legal and technical issues that can emerge in converting a rail line to a trail. They have a history of many successful conversion projects.
The vision for the Coaster trail conversion is one that ultimately includes the entire 350 mile line that covers both the Coaster and the Amtrak Pacific Surfliner trail. This trail would stretch from San Diego to San Luis Obispo, and hopefully all the way to northern California one day. The trail would be multi-use, allowing for bikes, e-bikes, hikers, walkers, and joggers.
Beyond the explicit lifestyle/outdoors appeal, the trail would become an engine of economic value creation. There are billions of dollars in real estate development opportunities that could be unlocked. For instance, a quick walk along the tracks near Leucadia Boulevard in Encinitas demonstrates large potential for development and optimization, including opportunities to satisfy affordable housing requirements. In addition to significant increases in real estate values and development opportunities, there would be increased business and foot-traffic for shops located near the trail. The High Line in New York has created billions in added value, including over $900 million in added property tax collections, significantly exceeding initial estimates.
The trail could also become a safe bicycle backbone, reducing the number of cars on the road and leading to a significant lifestyle and sustainability benefit.
With all its advantages, this trail could become the most popular trail in America, attracting tens of millions of local users and visitors per year. It could become a California icon.
This is a project that will have to be completed in stages. The first step is to get the NCTD or SANDAG board to approve a comprehensive study of the tracks as a trail. The study should look at financial costs, economic benefits, technology trends impacting transportation, demographics, environmental benefits, and social/lifestyle benefits. The analysis should look at two different scenarios:
1- A 41-mile trail from downtown San Diego to Oceanside
2- A 350-mile trail from San Diego to San Luis Obispo.
There is good reason to believe that the analysis would show overwhelming benefits of the tracks repurposed as a trail. Then we go from there.
Click on the links below to learn about all of the other amazing rail-to-trail projects going on:
Atlanta's very successful "Beltline" conversion and redevelopment: https://beltline.org/
https://www.dezeen.com/2017/06/27/18-rail-to-trail-projects-high-line-network-north-america/
https://www.afar.com/magazine/ride-run-or-walk-these-8-great-us-rail-trails
Island Line Trail
Burke-Gilman Trail
Island Line Trail
The Island Line Trail in Burlington, Vermont is one of the the top attractions in the city and may just be one of the coolest rail conversions ever.
The High Line
Burke-Gilman Trail
Island Line Trail
The High Line converted an elevated train line in Manhattan into an iconic trail that attracts over 8 million visitors per year and has added billions of dollars in economic value.
Burke-Gilman Trail
Burke-Gilman Trail
Burke-Gilman Trail
This Seattle trail runs mostly along the waterfront and replaces a disused train. It is now a very popular attraction for locals and visitors alike, promoting the outdoor lifestyle.
Greenhouse gas Benefits of a $3+ billion tunnel are minimal
Building the tunnel just maintains the status quo
Some officials write about the beneficial impacts of the tunnel and train as it relates to greenhouse gas emissions. The spending on the tunnel would only increase ridership numbers marginally, if at all, so the reduction in GHG is effectively nothing. This spending is to merely maintain the status quo.
From a climate change perspective, promoting the purchase or use of electric vehicles and electric bikes is over 100 times more beneficial than the construction of a tunnel for a train that has very low and declining usage. Focusing on the tunnel and trains is actually a negative because it distracts from where the vast majority of transportation and commuting is occurring--on the roads.
More Coaster Info - History
Coaster only started service in 1995
Below is a link on the history of the Coaster. It only got its start in 1995. Prior to that, the line was used for a handful of marginally utilized Amtrak and freight runs. It has been a worthwhile 25 year experiment, but the results are clear: ridership numbers are low. They peaked in 2012 around 1.6 million annually and have declined fairly steadily since then to around 1.4 million in 2019. There is nothing to indicate that ridership numbers will increase materially. In 2020, ridership levels have plunged 90%+ as a result of coronavirus. Due to ongoing concerns about hygiene and trends around remote/flex work , it is possible that many riders will not return even after the crisis passes. The train is slow, expensive, and inconvenient. The rise of self-driving cars in the next 5-10 years is likely to result in further rider reduction.
SANDAG's "Big 5" Moves - $177 billion Price tag
Still promoting trains? California High Speed Rail is all but abandoned
SANDAG is currently led by Hasan Ikhrata. The organization has encountered recent scandal regarding revenue forecasts and proposed tax increases. It is still focused on expensive rail projects beyond the Coaster line despite the evidence that rail and mass transit are in decline throughout the country. In August of 2020, SANDAG finally unveiled the price tag for its "Big 5 Moves" at $177 billion. See link below. This is an immense amount of money for a county of only 3 million people, and with modest inflation, the true cost is likely to be much higher. Do they not understand that the California High Speed Rail project has encountered significant cost and time delays in the "easier" central Valley section?
The current SANDAG rail project under construction is the mid-town Trolley line which is to be finished in 2021 and will connect the UCSD-UTC area to Old Town. This project is already in trouble with projected daily ridership numbers declining from 35,000 to 20,000, while the cost has increased 69% from $1.2 billion to 2.1 billion.
https://thecoastnews.com/sandag-board-to-consider-price-tag-of-transportation-vision/
https://www.keepsandiegomoving.com/Mid-coast/midcoast-intro.aspx
https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/government/a-readers-guide-to-the-sandag-scandal/
https://www.sdforward.com/mobility-planning/5-big-moves
The future of San Diego transportation is almost certainly going to include a significant shift to self driving cars and transportation-as-a-service (TaaS). It is prudent to wait for the private sector to develop self-driving cars and make as-needed adjustments to the highways and roads to optimize them.
Citizens for Access to Del Mar Beach / Bluffs / Trails
This is a Facebook group that advocates for access to the beach and the bluffs. It has a lot of great information and includes many elected officials and knowledgeable locals as members. Join us!
https://www.facebook.com/groups/delmarbeachaccess/?ref=bookmarks